Last year, I created the Rock Solid Ranking, a dynamic stock ranking list that shows a value for each dividend stock I follow. I’ve worked on calculations that consider several metrics in order to find the best companies among all those on the stock market. This list is particularly useful when the stock market is becoming highly valued (not overvalued yet in my opinion).
Starting this month, I’ll be sharing with you, for free, the top 10 dividend growth stocks for both the US and Canadian markets. You can download your report here:
July 2015 Top 20 Rock Solid Ranking
I personally use this list to manage my own portfolio along with portfolios I manage at Dividend Stocks Rock. This is not an ordinary ranking where we arbitrary apply a score to dividend stocks. We actually build a dividend growth model where multiple factors are accounted for in the score calculation. We started by listing the most important metrics we follow before buying a stock. Here’s the list:
1 year Revenue Growth
5 year Revenue Growth
1 year Earnings per Share (Diluted) Growth
5 year Earnings per Share (Diluted) Growth
1 year Dividend Growth
5 year Dividend Growth
Dividend Payout Ratio
P/E ratio PEG
Dividend Yield
Debt to Equity ratio
Price to Book Value
Explanation of metrics used
In order for you to understand why I’ve decided to use the above mentioned metrics instead of others I’m providing you with this complete explanation of how I came up with this ranking.
If a company can’t keep up its high ranking, it means its losing pace with one or more important metrics in our model. The more it loses ranking, the closer it is to joining the sell list. On the other hand, a company that improves its scores quarter after quarter definitely earns the buy mention as it shows it’s going towards the right direction. The Rock Solid Ranking goal is to provide an instant valuation of a stock according to our dividend growth investing model.
I’m not going to disclose our calculation methods here but I’ll tell you which metrics we follow. This can help you build your own investing model. Total score of a company could technically reach 100% if it was perfect on all attributes. The score can also be negative as we give penalties for negative growth numbers.
#1 SALES
In my opinion, if you don’t sell, you can’t make money. If you can’t make money, you can’t pay dividends. If you can’t increase your sales, you can’t increase your profits and you can’t increase your dividend. This is why revenue growth is so important. The best way to measure if a company is making more money is by looking at its revenue growth.
A company can run through a tough year or show erratic revenue movements. This is why we take a look at both 1 yr and 5 yr revenue growth. The first metrics to be used in our model is:
1 year Revenue Growth
5 year Revenue Growth
More weight is given to the 5 yr and penalties (negative score) are attributed to companies that show negative revenue growth. You can’t hope to increase your dividend consistently if your revenues decrease.
#2 PROFITS
Showing strong revenues is important, but it doesn’t guarantee you will get strong dividend payouts. Profits drive amounts to be paid through dividends. If you look at a company like Amazon (AMZN); revenues are huge but profit is thin. Therefore, they can’t hope to pay a dividend at this point in time (especially when your P/E is 574!).
In order to make sure we don’t give a high score to a company that recently restructured its costs or sold an important asset to boost its profits, we also consider 1yr and 5yr Earnings Per Share (EPS) growth.
1 year Earnings per Share (Diluted) Growth
5 year Earnings per Share (Diluted) Growth
Earnings and revenue growth combined together weigh a lot in our model. Both metrics combined together is the key for a sustainable business model. This is why so much weight (40%) is attributed to these 4 metrics.
#3 DIVIDEND METRICS
Once we have found companies with sales and profits, it’s time to take a look at what we desire most: dividend growth potential! In order to find out if a stock is not only a good stock but a good dividend stock, we use 3+1 different metrics. The “+1” is because we look at both 1yr and 5yr dividend growth percentages:
1 year Dividend Growth
5 year Dividend Growth
Dividend Payout Ratio
Dividend Yield
The 1 year dividend growth shows the company’s willingness (or capacity) to increase its dividend over a short period of time. The 5 year dividend growth confirms this willingness/capacity to keep increasing payments to shareholders.
Then, the dividend payout ratio is also very important to us. We penalize companies paying over 120% of their earnings. We didn’t select 100% as we must always take into consideration that the payout is in $ and the profit is an accounting term (including amortization for example). This is why it’s important to give some room for high dividend payout ratio companies. We also give a smaller weight to companies with very low payout ratio (0-20%). This shows the company would rather keep its money in its bank account instead of sharing the wealth with stockholders.
Finally, the dividend yield is also a debated topic. Some investors are looking at 5%+ dividend yield (I keep receiving tons of emails telling me I look for low yield dividend stocks). Some others (like me!) prefer sound businesses with dividend stocks around 3%. In the past four years, I’ve noticed that stocks paying over 4% often show shakier metrics than stocks with a lower yield. Dividend metrics combined together represent 40% of our ranking calculation.
#4 DEBT LEVEL
Another important data is the debt level of a company. The idea behind the choice of this fundamental is simple; debt payment requires cash flow, cash flow that could be used to pay dividends. You don’t want a company strangled by their debts and forced to make unfortunate decisions. This is why we use a debt ratio in our model:
Debt to Equity ratio
Here again, a high debt to equity ratio is penalized by negative points.
#5 STOCK VALUATION
Finally, the price you pay for a stock is also important. I’m the first one to pay a relatively high price for a great company. Still, if I can find a company that is relatively similar but traded at a cheaper price than another, I will definitely take a look at it.
We have used the following metrics in our system to give points to each stock:
P/E ratio PEG
Price to Book Value
10 of these Stocks are part of our Real-World DSR Portfolios
From the July Top 20 Rock Solid Ranking list, there are 10 companies that are held in our DSR portfolios:
BlackRock (BLK)
Intel (INTC)
Helmerich & Payne (HP)
Hormel Food (HRL)
ScotiaBank (BNS.TO)
National Bank (NA.TO)
Intact Financial (IFC.TO)
TD Bank (TD.TO)
Potash (POT.TO)
Royal Bank (RY.TO)
You can see how we performed since we created our dividend growth portfolios here
ron
As a retired investor age 81, I prefer to use funds for most investing and a few individual stocks. The fund I have for dividend stocks is an ETF from Schwab – SCHD. Here is a brief description from Morningstar.
Suitability
Schwab U.S. Dividend Equity is a passively managed exchange-traded fund that homes in on high-quality income-producing stocks. The fund’s index is composed of large, liquid companies that have paid dividends in each of the past 10 years, and it requires constituents to earn high marks on four fundamental metrics: cash flow/debt, return on equity, dividend yield, and dividend growth. The resulting portfolio is one of the highest-quality among all large-cap dividend-oriented ETFs. Also, SCHD charges a 0.07% expense ratio, which makes it the least expensive dividend-oriented ETF available. This fund’s high-quality portfolio and low cost make it a suitable core equity holding.
DivGuy
Hello Ron,
It seems like a good product. The best investment solution is always the one that makes your sleep at night!
Thx for stopping by!
cheers,
Mike.
mark
This fund sounds great Ron, but I don’t see it paying any dividend. That would rather defeat the purpose would it not?
Cam
Mark,
SCHD yield currently 2.9.
Vanguard version is VIG and currently yielding 2.2.
PeterA
I’m a subscriber to your newsletter, and it the latest one it says: “The excel spreadsheet is available for free download in my latest article on The Dividend Guy Blog”
I tried to find that spreadsheet on your website, but to no avail.
Could you either send me a copy of the spreadsheet, or let me know where it is?
Much thanks!
DivGuy
Hello Peter,
I just sent you an email.
Thx!
Mike
Victor
Hi Mark, enjoy the newsletter, but I also can’t find the spreadsheet anywhere (I must be missing something). Could you email it to me?
Thanks,
Victor
Stormin
Same comment as Peter – please could you provide the spreadsheet as per your email?
thanks
Barbara Mackay
Could you please also email me the spreadsheet, thank you Mike!
DivGuy
Hi Barbara,
I did better than this; I just the link at the top of the article with the excel spreadsheet. You can download it again.
Cheers,
Mike
Chris
Enjoyed the article and found it to be very informative. I am still trying to decide on whether to investing funds vs stocks. I having been using a really awesome resource that answers your questions about if day trading is profitable.