Confused about stock price movement? Listen to this

Confused by wild price swings? Here’s a repeatable, 3-step playbook to make faster, calmer buy, hold, and sell decisions—without guessing.

By the end, you’ll be able to separate noise from news, stress-test a shaky position, recognize when a “bad” quarter is actually better than feared, and act with conviction—whether that means trimming, adding, or doing nothing. We show the process on real names (Nike, Couche-Tard, Granite REIT), and point you to a free replay with slides and cheat sheets so you can apply it to your portfolio today.

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You’ll Learn

Why does price feel so confusing

After hundreds of webinar Q&As, the most common question is still: “Stock ABC just spiked/dropped—buy, sell, or hold?”
Short-term price is driven by a mix of results and expectations. Good quarters can “disappoint” and fall; weak quarters can rally if expectations were worse.

Step 1 — Know what you own (and why)

Write a clear, one-page thesis for every holding:
- Playbook: How the business makes money.
- Growth vectors: Why sales and profits can keep rising.
- Economic moat: What protects it from rivals.
Also write the risk map: internal weaknesses, external/industry threats (e.g., tariffs), and competitive landscape.
Mike illustrates the exercise in real time with Nike (NKE)—brand strength vs. retailer relationships, DTC shift, cyclical demand, tariff risk, and global competition.

Step 2 — Read quarterly earnings the smart way (20% of effort = 80% of insight)

Start with the press release (highlights, revenue/EPS, dividend actions).
Scan the investor presentation for segment charts and guidance.
If needed, dig into financial statements (margins, cash flow, debt, maturities).
Skim the earnings call (or transcript) for tone, guidance changes, and analyst pushback.
Pro tip: If you’re stuck, paste the call transcript into an AI summarizer with a specific question.

What to look for inside the results

Revenue quality: Organic vs. acquisitions; same-store sales for retailers; FX impact.
EPS quality: Adjusted vs. GAAP; what’s truly recurring; why margins changed.
Margins: Stable, expanding, or compressing—and is it temporary or structural?
Guidance: Reaffirmed, raised, or cut (and why).
Capital allocation: Dividend hikes/cuts, buybacks, debt moves, asset sales.

Expectations vs. numbers (why “bad news” can rally)

Example: Alimentation Couche-Tard posted lower revenue/EPS, yet rose on the day because same-store trends and outlook beat fears.
Translate: Price reacts to the delta vs. consensus, not headlines alone.

Step 3 — Use the Dividend Triangle to anchor conviction

Rising revenue, rising EPS, and a rising dividend over time = a healthy, compounding engine.
The triangle filters noise and highlights when to investigate further (e.g., revenue up but EPS down = margin questions).

When price still makes no sense

Re-check your thesis and risk map (you might be missing a key driver).
Consider market appetite (sector out of favor) or single-tenant/industry exposures (e.g., Granite REIT and Magna concentration).
If after a full review you still don’t get it, the position may not fit your circle of competence.