How to Craft an Investment Thesis

We explore what it really means to craft an investment thesis—and why it’s the missing link for many investors. Let’s break down the essential steps to writing one, how to use it in buy/sell decisions, and walk through two real-world examples: Alimentation Couche-Tard and BCE.

Whether you’re a beginner or a seasoned investor, this is your guide to investing with clarity and confidence.

Not Sure What to Buy—or When?

Whether you’re sitting on cash or staring at a portfolio that needs a refresh, the DSR Investment Roadmap helps you cut through the noise and move forward with purpose.

This free step-by-step guide answers the questions that keep DIY investors stuck:

How many stocks should I hold?
When is the right time to buy?
Do I need to cover every sector?
What rules should guide my decisions?
Which metrics actually matter?

Instead of guessing, follow a proven plan that helps you build (or rebuild) a dividend growth portfolio you can trust—one step at a time.

—> thedividendguyblog.com/roadmap

You’ll Learn

Why You Need an Investment Thesis
A strong investment thesis gives you conviction and clarity. Without it, you’re just guessing—and that leads to regret.

It forces you to define why you want to own a stock.
Helps avoid emotional decisions during volatility.
Solves doubts around buying, holding, or selling.

The 4 Pillars of a Solid Investment Thesis
Mike explains the framework used at DSR, showing how it creates a full picture of a company.

Narrative – The elevator pitch: Why do you own this stock?
Playbook – How does it make money? Can a 12-year-old understand it?
Growth Vectors – Where will growth come from? Organic, acquisition, innovation?
Economic Moat – What protects the business from competition?

Real-World Example: Couche-Tard vs BCE
To bring the thesis framework to life, Mike builds side-by-side comparisons.

Couche-Tard: Clear playbook, strong acquisition track record, expanding EV charging, but limited moat.
BCE: Strong moat and recurring revenue, but stagnant earnings and capital-heavy business.

Numbers Tell the Truth
Your thesis needs validation. Don’t stop at the story—check the stats.

Use the Dividend Triangle: revenue, earnings, and dividend growth.
If numbers don’t support your thesis, it’s time to revise or sell.

Build a Bear Case, Too
Every good thesis includes what could go wrong. Understanding risks prepares you to act wisely.

Business vulnerabilities (e.g., BCE’s debt load, Couche-Tard’s dependence on acquisitions)
Industry threats (EV trends, shifting consumer habits)
Competitive landscape (7-Eleven vs. Couche-Tard, BCE’s telco rivals)

How This Ties Into the DSR Roadmap
Mike shares how the DSR Investment Roadmap helps you apply this framework across your portfolio.